There are almost an infinite number of scenarios that can happen in a single football game. “Squares usually bet later in the week and they tend to pick the favorites. If North Texas is his best bet on a Saturday then that is his bet. Money Management – “This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting on sports and possibly the most neglected,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. Avoid Chasing Bets – “Don’t do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day,” cautions Moseman on the dangerous practice of trying to immediately win back your losses. They use powerful computers that can process millions of bits of data and produce a more accurate point-spread line than the bookmakers.”
Although exact figures are impossible to calculate, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, widely considered to be Las Vegas’ most influential bookmaker, Americans probably wager more than $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined. “If you listen to their advice, you are sure to lose. “Common wisdom says that over the course of a long football season the average man or woman will pick approximately 50 percent winners. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites.
“The bookies fear and despise a tiny coterie of professional bettors known as ‘the sharps,’” Konik says. Thanks to the juice, the only one who profits in this scenario is the bookmaker. Chasing losses is the fastest way to the poor house.”
“A square is the average, unsophisticated gambler whose decision making is based on hunches, media manipulation, or spurious systems that cannot overcome the bookmaker’s inherent mathematical advantage,” Konik explains.
“The standard bet requires gamblers to lay $11 for every $10 they want to win with the extra $1 or 10 percent known as the juice,” Konik says. Also, being “in action” can make a dull late-afternoon game (Buffalo vs.
Michael Konik, a sports writer and best-selling author of The Smart Money (Simon & Schuster 2006), explains why it is so hard for the recreational gambler to win at betting on football. But, when you’re struggling, that’s when you want to reduce your bet size until you get out of your slump. “He is not jaded by teams and does not bet with his heart. In fact, sports bettors must pick 52.4 percent winners just to break even.”
Moseman agrees and especially likes home underdogs. He is not taken in by being involved in USC-Notre Dame just because it is the biggest watched game of the day.
“In an average season, fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit,” Gordon says. Oakland comes to mind) seem like the Super Bowl. “Most people prefer to bet on the ‘better’ team, the one that will probably win the game. “Teams play inspired ball at home. On college you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. Bet at the Right Time – “The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early,” Moseman says. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”.
“A sharp or smart has a plan of what he wants to do,” says Vaccaro, the director of sports operations and public relations at Lucky’s Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas. “If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines.”
7. Slim underdogs regularly win outright. Focus on Conferences – “The best way to win money betting football is to develop a niche and follow it closely,” Moseman advises. Consider Underdogs – “In the long-run, it’s easier to win betting on the underdog,” Konik says.
9. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind.”
Also, it’s probably a good idea to disregard advice from the myriad of ex-players and football experts you see on television each week.
Newspapers and popular sports sites routinely publish the lines or point spreads for games, and football insiders offer their picks to viewers each week on ESPN and other cable networks. The only locks that exist are those that need keys to open them.”
And where does all that money go?
“The biggest mistake that amateur bettors make is they increase their bets when they are losing,” Sevransky says.
Certainly not back into the pockets of the average bettor. Locks Don’t Exist – “Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing, especially against the spread, can be infinitesimally small,” Gordon says. He loses year after year, according to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of How to Beat the Sports Books (Cardoza Publishing 2005).
But that doesn’t mean you have to bet like a “square” and throw away your hard-earned money.
2. The payout is just the same as far as he is concerned.
Another difference between squares and sharps is how they approach betting on game day.
6. “As for me, the best bet in football is betting the point spread or over/under totals on individual games. Otherwise, you’re better off doing your own research.”
“A square or recreational player might have a vague plan, but after two Corona’s he will definitely run to the window and make a hasty decision on